By Lynne Hendricks
NEWBURYPORT — Fresh ripe strawberries in the dead of a New England winter and purchasing cheap clothing and goods from China are trademarks of the late 20th century. But local energy expert Niall Robinson says the 21st century will be marked by our ability to adapt to life without such things, as the world moves toward an event known to industry experts as "peak oil."
Robinson and a group of local Newburyport residents are honoring Newburyport's Earth Day Celebration by bringing attention to what's being labeled worldwide as the "Transition," an international movement that plans town by town for the inevitable day when oil wells begin to run dry, which will in turn bring an abrupt end to the "cheap oil lifestyle" we've come to know.
"Peak oil is the point where supply peaks and starts to go down a descent or what they call a terminal decline," said Robinson, a native of Ireland who relocated years ago and now serves on Newburyport's 11-member Energy Advisory Committee.
"There are 96 countries that are known to have oil and gas resources and 64 of them have peaked already, including the United States, which peaked in the 1970s," he said.
Whether we've already reached the peak of what we can excavate from the finite oil resources available on earth is the subject of some debate, according to Robinson. But all agree that peak oil will happen, and happen soon.
"There's no argument that we will hit peak oil," said Robinson.
Some scientific experts say we've already peaked, and a souring economy that's caused the world to pull back on its consumption might be masking some of the fearful effects predicted to accompany oil shortages worldwide — like wildly fluctuating gas and food prices, credit crunches and a desperation that drives nations to battle each other for whatever oil reserves are left.
Though Robinson isn't prone to conspiracy theories or doomsday scenarios, he's troubled by how unprepared we are for sustaining our lifestyles in a world without oil. We've become experts in our respective fields of engineering, marketing and technology, but he wonders how many modern-day Americans, for instance, know how to heat their own homes or plant a garden that grows food their family can eat?
"When you go to the grocery store, and say it's winter time and you'd like some strawberries," said Robinson, "look at where the strawberries came from. There's a huge amount of transport involved in getting them from Chile."
Add to that a farmer's dependence on fertilizers and pesticides that are oil- or natural gas-based, and on the machines used to harvest and transport them that run on oil.
"We have about a three-days supply of food at any given time," said Robinson. "That's driven by what Shaw's has on stock. If those trucks don't come, people will go hungry."
Despite understanding these terrifying realities, Robinson isn't predicting a collapse of civilization. On the contrary, he predicts a massive effort will take place in response to diminished oil, something akin to the country-wide patriotism that blossomed during World War II when sacrifice and community service were a way of life.
"You've got to remain positive and really tell yourself that you don't want to see these things to come," said Robinson, who advocates as a first step, bringing back the "Victory" garden.
"During World War II all the allies, because they wanted to use all the oil for the war effort, had restrictions on transportation within the communities. Everybody had gardens in their backyard. You wouldn't be putting grass down because grass doesn't do anything for you. Grass is synonymous with cheap oil."
The Transition Town movement has its origins in a small town on the Irish coast called Kinsale, and the movement has grown to be present in 14 countries and at least 22 communities across America.
The model starts with a few activists who get people motivated to sign onto the group and begin to study how life in their respective cities will change as the oil supply diminishes. Then comes the remaining 11 steps of the 12-step model, which includes a giant party called the "Great Unleashing" and ends with the formation of the group's official Energy Descent Action Plan (EDAP).
"Those who are involved in Transition Initiatives are part of one of the biggest and most important research projects underway anywhere in the world," said Rob Hopkins, Transition concept pioneer and author of the Transition Handbook.
The Newburyport group consists of Robinson, John Brown, Elizabeth Marcus and Ben Twombly, all of whom were members of a Greater Massachusetts Transition Group prior to the launch of a Newburyport group. The kick-off meeting will take place Wednesday, April 22 at 7 p.m. in the Newburyport Public Library, as an official event of the Newburyport Eco-Collaborative Earth Day Celebration.
It's Robinson's hope that in the next six to eight months the group will be ready to move forward with a Great Unleashing that identifies how oil shortages and climate change will affect our local community. Once launched, Robinson plans to take on one aspect and allow others to do the same. He looks forward to sharing it with his children, since they'll be involved in taking on the same work throughout their lives. He predicts the future will be a blend of the life our grandparents lived, with the addition of new technology.
"If I close my eyes when I'm in a good mood, I envision it would be really nice if we had a tighter community — kind of like how it was in our grandparents' lives," said Robinson. "Less time for television and more time for singing — more of a heart-based society, if that makes sense."
