1They have only to look in their own communities to see the signs the upcoming year could be very cold for many people.

In the Salisbury tax collector's office, people who have always paid their taxes on time are becoming delinquent, and in the finance director's office, growth-related revenues from things like building and inspection fees are way down.

At Newburyport Public Library, staffers are seeing significant increases in traffic, a factor they attribute to economic conditions.

At Salisbury Public Library, more and more people are visiting to hunt for jobs and using computers to learn how to write a resume. Soap and bathroom paper products are disappearing at an unusually high rate, which library staffers attribute to theft.

At Pettengill House, which serves the social needs of nine Greater Newburyport communities, the homeless rate grew to 49 families in Amesbury from 15 two years ago, and people who used to make charitable contributions to the organization are now coming in to ask for help.

Over the past year, three regional developers with condo projects at desirable Salisbury Beach faced financial trouble: One lost his property to a bank foreclosure already, another faces an upcoming foreclosure auction.

All are unfortunate signs the downturn in the economy is not a minor blip on the radar screen, but a sign of serious problems ahead.

Real estate suffering

Christine Caron has been Salisbury's treasurer for five years, and she's never had as many tax delinquencies on the books as she has now. People with good histories of paying their taxes are falling in arrears, she said. Caron doesn't believe people simply won't pay, she said, but that the trend signals tough financial times for people who have previously been able to make ends meet.

Last fall, Peter Carbone's luxury condominium complex planned for property in the heart of Salisbury Beach Center sold at a foreclosure auction. Carbone said he got caught at the beginning of the real estate slowdown, couldn't pre-sell the units and couldn't pay the highly leveraged mortgage.

The incident was a shock to many. Because of its rarity, beach property is usually somewhat immune to minor fluctuations in the real estate markets, unless, of course, it's a serious downturn.

More bad news was on the way. In Salisbury, where real estate consumers could always get a bigger bang for their real estate buck, Salisbury Finance Director Andy Gould spoke frankly recently when he told selectmen, "This is the worst real estate market in 30 years," when taking into consideration declining sales and the credit crunch.

Caron's office was also notified in late 2007 that developer Frank Gorman, who built two condo projects on North End Boulevard, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy for the project's corporation, Northend Commons, LLC.

About a month ago, Caron got notice from the Newburyport Five Cents Savings Bank of a foreclosure auction on Oct. 16 for properties on Lafayette Road and Kendall Lane, long-owned by John Longo, a well-known developer and builder.

After more than six months of negotiations with the Planning Board, in May 2007, the Goldman family finally got permission to redevelop its Beach Road, 13-acre Kartland site, replacing the amusement park with 210 condos in the $300,000 to $400,000 range. But the project hasn't started.

"There's no housing market right now, and we're patiently waiting these economic troubles to right themselves," Goldman said. "Before this economic downturn, Salisbury was poised for a renaissance. Now Salisbury will have to wait for the housing and credit market to right themselves. They always do eventually."

Social Distress

Free public libraries often become refuges in times of economic stress, and Newburyport's public library is seeing that trend.

"There's been a huge increase in use," head librarian Dottie LaFrance said, adding that the number of patrons started to climb over the summer and continued into the fall.

The children's room saw more attending programs and activities over the summer, LaFrance said, noting that families may have been looking for local activities due to the high gas prices.

Both children and adult circulation numbers are up, she said, and more people are using the computers and checking out all materials from books to DVDs.

Financial stress is also being felt in the area's safety nets.

Pettengill House, the regional social service agency, and its director, Deb Smith, fear what the winter will bring for clients.

"We got 91 new clients last month; that's huge," Smith said. "That brings us up to 2,600 clients from our communities. At 2,000, it would be a lot. These financial times are affecting a whole other tier of individuals unaccustomed to having these kinds of problems. Some of the people who used to be making donations before are coming in for help themselves."

Some having trouble paying for fuel this winter may not even qualify for federal or state fuel assistance programs because their incomes are actually too high, she said, but their financial distress is very real. Salisbury selectmen are considering using taxpayer money to provide fuel assistance.

At the Salisbury library, director Terry Kyrios sees people with employment problems as they scour newspaper help-wanted ads, learn how to use employment Web sites or how to write a resume.

"We've found those are signs of economic problems," Kyrios said. "That and that we're losing toilet paper, paper towels and soap from our bathrooms. It happens during bad economic times."

"There are people who are too proud to ask for help because they've never had to do it before," said Salisbury Selectman Don Beaulieu. "We may need to ask neighbors to keep an eye out for the welfare of their neighbors and help them out themselves."