I was late for midmorning coffee, and Big Freddy was packing it in when I showed up.

"Sit down," I said, "I just got here."

"I can see that," Freddy said, "and what kept you? Oversleep?"

"You missed it," I said. "An army psychiatrist killed a bunch of soldiers down in Texas."

"I didn't miss it," Freddy said. "I just didn't hang around trying to get something other than the TV blather about it.

"Okay," I said, "sort out Tuesday. Big comeback for the Republicans?"

"Big wake-up call for both parties," Freddy said.

"Republicans win big in the Virginia governor's race and sweep New Jersey, but they lose a solid bet for the House seat in upstate New York. Virginia was an out-and-out win, but New Jersey had a lot more of state issues than national."

"Democrats are making a big case out of their upstate New York win," I said.

"Which they won because the Republicans blew it," Freddy said. "The Republican candidate was Dierdre Scozzafava, a middling liberal who fit the district. The GOP right-wingers didn't like Scozzafava. Not far enough right. They send in Palin and Pawlenty from the right wing to campaign for the Conservative party candidate, Doug Hoffman. Scozzafava drops out, backs the Democrat, and Republicans take a hosing."

"So, big win for the Democrats, so what?" I asked.

"They didn't win it," Freddy said. "Republicans blew it."

"Democrats don't see it that way," I said.

"What would you expect?" Freddy asked. "Both parties are blowing smoke. This country's not far right or far left, it's all about the middle,"

"Maybe," I said. "But three campaigns in three states don't make for a national condition."

"What they do make is a heads-up for both parties," Freddy said. "Whatever booster shot the Democrats had going for them with George Bush in the White House is history. This is no longer about Bush."

"But it's still Republicans playing hard ball," I said.

"Which is what the Democrats did for six of the eight years when they were out of power," Freddy said, "but Republicans don't have a George Bush to bash."

"Because they have Obama, and he's no George Bush," I said.

"But he's carrying a lot of weight in the saddle with Pelosi, Reid and company piling it on," Freddy said. "They're playing defense. What they have is time Democrats don't have, because all those who voted for Obama have higher hopes for what neither party can deliver from either the far left or right, and that's a different kind of weight in the saddle."

"Well, Republicans certainly have Limbaugh and company," I said, "and they want no part of him."

"And neither does the middle want any part of Limbaugh," Freddy said. "He's a hair shirt in some states and a patron saint to others, but the extremes in both parties are turnoffs most of the time. Left of center, right of center? OK most of the time. Things go sour? Whoever's in power pays the price. Republicans blow it with Bush and company, out they go. Obama comes in carrying the colors, hope hangs high. The economy tanks before he gets there, that's on Bush. It doesn't get better, that's on him. The question is how long will it take.

"That's what's going to be the make or break of this administration. It won't be health care. It won't even be Iraq and Afghanistan. It's going to be what's on all the tables of America, and you can double down on this one. If the only tables with goodies on them are the fat cats of Wall Street, it'll be Katy bar the door for control of Congress a year from now."

¢¢¢

Bill Plante is former executive editor of Essex County Newspapers. His e-mail address is plantejr@comcast.net.